Econvitals IndiaA running read on the health of the Indian economy
The latest data on India's growth, prices, jobs, money, markets, public finances and external sector, in one place, updated as the numbers come out.
Key indicators
Coming next: UPI · MGNREGA work demand · Auto sales
Coming up: Union government monthly accounts (Sep 2026), 30 Oct 2026* · PLFS quarterly bulletin (Jul–Sep 2026), 10 Nov 2026 · Consumer Price Index (Oct 2026), 12 Nov 2026 · Merchandise and services trade (Oct 2026), 13 Nov 2026* · PLFS monthly bulletin (Oct 2026), 16 Nov 2026 · Full calendar →
India in four questions
Is inflation near RBI's 4% target?
- CPI inflation Sep 2026
- 5.54%
- Core CPI Sep 2026
- 4.33%
- Food and beverages Sep 2026
- 7.36%
RBI targets 4% CPI inflation with a tolerance band of 2–6%. Core strips out food and fuel, whose prices swing with harvests and global oil.
Is growth holding up?
- Real GDP, latest quarter Q1 FY27
- 7.8%
- Average, last 4 quarters Q2 FY26–Q1 FY27
- 8.1%
- Industrial production, latest month Sep 2026
- 6.7%
Real GDP growth on a year earlier, as MoSPI published it, and the average of the last four quarters to look through quarterly noise.
Is the job market improving?
- Unemployment rate Sep 2026
- 5.0%
- A year earlier Sep 2025
- 5.2%
- Youth (15–29) unemployment Sep 2026
- 15.2%
Monthly PLFS, current weekly status, ages 15 and over. The monthly survey began in 2025, so comparisons go back one year.
Is the external position under strain?
- Trade balance, latest month Sep 2026
- −$30.2bn
- Current account, % of GDP Q1 FY27
- −0.5%
- FX reserves 16 Oct 2026
- $721.0bn
The goods trade gap, the overall current account (goods, services, income and remittances) and RBI's reserves, which cushion the rupee against swings in capital flows.
The economy at a glance
Growth →
| Real, % y/y | Q2 FY26 | Q3 FY26 | Q4 FY26 | Q1 FY27 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP | 8.1 | 7.7 | 8.6 | 7.8 |
| GVA | 8.3 | 7.6 | 8.7 | 8.2 |
| Private consumption | 6.4 | 8.0 | 7.5 | 7.1 |
| Fixed investment | 7.2 | 8.3 | 10.5 | 11.9 |
Prices →
| % y/y | Jun 2026 | Jul 2026 | Aug 2026 | Sep 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CPI | 4.38 | 4.45 | 4.83 | 5.54 |
| Core CPI Original | 3.90 | 3.86 | 4.15 | 4.33 |
| CPI food & beverages | 5.06 | 5.25 | 5.68 | 7.36 |
| WPI | 9.97 | 9.78 | 9.92 | 11.39 |
Activity →
| % y/y | Jun 2026 | Jul 2026 | Aug 2026 | Sep 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industrial production | 8.8 | 7.4 | 7.8 | 6.7 |
| Core industries | 6.0 | 5.0 | 5.9 | 7.9 |
| GST collections | 13.9 | 15.4 | 14.8 | – |
| Merchandise exports | 15.5 | 19.6 | 26.1 | 23.0 |
Jobs →
| Per cent (PLFS, CWS) | Jun 2026 | Jul 2026 | Aug 2026 | Sep 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unemployment rate | 5.5 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 5.0 |
| Youth unemployment | 16.2 | 15.6 | 15.1 | 15.2 |
| Participation rate | 54.4 | 55.4 | 55.6 | 55.5 |
| Female participation | 32.7 | 34.4 | 34.8 | 34.6 |
Money & markets →
| Latest | As of | YTD change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Repo rate | 5.50% | 28 Oct 2026 | +25 bp |
| Call rate (WACR) | 5.56% | 16 Oct 2026 | +19 bp |
| 10-yr G-sec | 7.45% | 27 Oct 2026 | – |
| Bank credit growth | 18.20% | 15 Oct 2026 | +370 bp |
| Nifty 50 | 22,699 | 28 Oct 2026 | −13.1% |
External & fiscal →
| Latest | As of | YTD change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trade balance (month) | −$30.2bn | Sep 2026 | – |
| FX reserves | $721.0bn | 16 Oct 2026 | +3.5% |
| USD/INR | 95.23 | 28 Oct 2026 | +5.9% |
| Fiscal deficit, % of BE (FYTD) | 41.9% | Aug 2026 | – |
Inflation against RBI's target
CPI inflation
% change on a year earlier, as published · RBI target 4% (dashed), tolerance band 2–6% (shaded)
The rupee
USD/INR reference rate
Rupees per US dollar, FBIL 1 pm fixing