Growth

How fast is the economy growing, and which sectors and spending components drive it? Quarterly national accounts from MoSPI. Real GDP grew 7.8% on a year earlier in Q1 FY27; nominal GDP in that quarter was ₹88.3 lakh crore.

Real GDP and GVA growth, as published

% change on the same quarter a year earlier, constant prices

Source: MoSPI (NSO).Base: as published (see note column).Download CSV (gdp_real_growth)Download CSV (gva_real_growth)

Base 2022-23 from Q1 FY24 (April–June 2023), base 2011-12 before; each value is the rate MoSPI published on that base. The swings in FY21 and FY22 are the COVID-19 lockdown and rebound.

Growth by sector

Real GVA, % y/y	Q1 FY26	Q2 FY26	Q3 FY26	Q4 FY26	Q1 FY27
Total GVA	7.0	8.3	7.6	8.7	8.2
GVA agriculture	4.4	3.2	1.9	3.9	3.6
GVA mining and quarrying	12.4	21.6	3.3	−2.9	−2.4
GVA manufacturing	8.3	10.0	9.0	7.9	9.2
GVA electricity	−1.8	3.8	1.9	4.8	8.9
GVA construction	5.2	7.8	7.0	8.7	7.7
GVA trade	9.8	10.6	11.7	12.9	8.5
GVA financial	8.8	9.9	10.9	12.3	12.1
GVA public administration	4.6	5.7	6.6	8.0	7.5

Growth by spending component

Constant prices, % y/y	Q1 FY26	Q2 FY26	Q3 FY26	Q4 FY26	Q1 FY27
GDP	6.9	8.1	7.7	8.6	7.8
Private consumption	6.8	6.4	8.0	7.5	7.1
Government consumption	4.5	4.4	7.0	7.7	4.3
Fixed investment	5.8	7.2	8.3	10.5	11.9
Exports	6.0	9.7	6.2	3.9	12.0
Imports	5.3	5.0	7.0	0.8	−1.1

Computed from MoSPI's quarterly levels on the 2022-23 base (site calculations), so they can differ from published growth rates by rounding. GDP also includes change in stocks, valuables and discrepancies, which are not shown.

Contributions to real GDP growth

Percentage points of the year-on-year growth rate; dots show growth computed from the same quarterly levels

Source: MoSPI national accounts (base 2022-23); site calculations.

Contribution = change in the component over four quarters ÷ GDP four quarters earlier; imports subtract from GDP. "Other" is what the spending components do not explain: change in stocks, valuables and the statistical discrepancy. It was −3.6 percentage points in Q1 FY27, which is large: read growth by component with that in mind.

Nominal and real

Nominal and real GDP growth

% change on a year earlier, as published; the gap is GDP deflator inflation

Source: MoSPI (NSO).Base: as published (see note column).Download CSV (gdp_nominal_growth)Download CSV (gdp_real_growth)

Forecasts and sentiment

Professional forecasters: growth and inflation

Median forecast for the current financial year at each survey round, %; the year forecast changes each April

Source: RBI.

Consumer confidence

RBI surveys, index (100 = neutral; above 100 = optimism)

Source: RBI.Base: 100 = neutral.

Median forecast, %, survey of professional forecasters	Apr 2026	Jun 2026	Aug 2026	Oct 2026
Real GDP growth, this FY	7.6	6.5	6.6	7.1
Real GDP growth, next FY	6.9	6.9	7.0	7.0
CPI inflation, this FY	–	4.9	5.0	5.1
Core CPI inflation, this FY	–	4.4	4.3	4.3
Centre's fiscal deficit, % of GDP, this FY	4.4	4.5	4.5	4.5

RBI's bi-monthly Survey of Professional Forecasters and Consumer Confidence Surveys, released with each MPC decision. They are respondents' views, not RBI's. Columns are the months the results were released; some older rounds are missing because their PDFs use a different layout.

Still to come on this page

Contributions to growth by component, annual advance/provisional estimates and their revisions, RBI's growth projections. Checklist: docs/guidebook/05-pages/growth.md.